Former President Donald Trump appears satisfied, for the time being, to allow politicos and media types to speculate about whether he’ll run in 2024, but that hasn’t stopped others from assuming that he will.
And, importantly, whether or not he could win again.
A new survey from McLaughlin shows that he can, and would, if his opponent is now-Vice President Kamala Harris, whom most respondents also believe will be President Harris by 2024.
When asked if Harris will be president before the end of Biden’s 4-year term, 64% of likely voters in the McLaughlin monthly May poll said she would.
Even among Biden voters (51%) and Democrats (50%), many said it’s likely Harris will be president.
In a presidential contest pitting Trump against Harris, the former president leads 49% to 45%.
Trump leads Harris among independents (48% – 42%) and suburban voters (52% – 42%), but also takes 39% of Hispanics and 17% of African Americans.
Although Biden maintains a net positive job approval — McLaughlin said the president’s favorable to unfavorable ratings are close to 53% approve to 46% disapprove — it’s down from last month when it was 56% – 43%.
The president has a net unfavorable rating among independents (47% approve to 51% disapprove), whites (44% – 56%), voters over 55 (47% – 53%), and men (47% – 52%).
That’s a lot of figures and facts, but the bottom line is this: Trump beats Harris in 2024, according to this poll, and pretty handily, given today’s divide in the country.
But really, when you think about it, Trump emerging victorious makes sense. One, he remains incredibly popular among the GOP base, and two, Harris just isn’t popular or well-liked, as evidenced by the fact that she was among the first candidates to drop out of the 2020 Democratic primary. Why Biden’s handlers chose her to be vice president, then, has to be more about checking identity politics boxes — first black woman VP, then first black female president, first Asian both, etc. — that whether or not she’s popular or effective as a leader.
As to the latter, we’ve already seen that she isn’t. She hasn’t done a thing to solve the continuing migrant crisis along the U.S.-Mexico border that Biden assigned her to deal with in March. The only visible effort on her part comes from a visit to Guatemala and Mexico last week that amounted to more of a pay-off to those governments using American taxpayers to finance the deals. And then there was her testy exchange with a Univision correspondent who wanted to know when the administration’s border czar is actually going to go to the border and see first-hand what she’s dealing with (or not dealing with, in her case).
After all, Donald Trump’s going — in just a few short weeks.
To be fair to Harris, by the time 2024 rolls around, any Republican presidential nominee will be able to win.
The border will probably still be wide open because the Democrats’ plan is to replace U.S. voters with third-world, grateful poor; the U.S. economy will be in tatters, with inflation still rising amid a Democrat-caused artificial labor shortage and floods of money into a system starved for goods; energy costs will be up; food prices will be up; and we’ll be lucky if we’re not fighting a major war somewhere in the world against an adversary emboldened by chronic U.S. weakness.
So in those respects, 2024 can’t get here soon enough.